by MrMT
My old brain is straining to remember a neat formula to calculate fate deck probabilities.Lets start with alliances for example, and say I want to calculate the probability of winning some giants to my cause.
There are 4 successful outcomes in the deck, out of 30 cards.
Let us say, for this example, that we are pulling from a fresh deck. For simplicity, lets consider two outcomes only (success or failure).
We can imagine a number of different draws. 4 successes, 3 successes one failure, 2 successes 2 failure etc.
Each draw obviously has an impact on the next. Ie, If the first draw is a failure, the chances of drawing a success the next draw is 4/29.
If I sat down and literally worked out every outcome, I would eventually work out the probability of having a success.
But is there an easy algorithm which can be applied, which would work for different starting decks, with different contents? (You are allowed to look at the discard pile before drawing).